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Colóquio Online: Data-Driven Study of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil Print E-mail
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Convidamos toda a comunidade para participar do Ciclo de Colóquios Online do IF-UFF 2020, dia 12 de Maio, às 11h, através da plataforma Google Meet.

PalestranteAskery Canabarro (International Institute of Physics & Universidade Federal de Alagoas)

TítuloData-Driven Study of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil

A exibição da sala de conferência será gravada e divulgada no site do Instituto.
o se esqueça de desabilitar o acesso à câmera e ao microfone do seu dispositivo ao entrar na sala.

Veja a continuação desta notícia para um resumo.

 

Resumo: In this work we propose a data-driven age-structured census- based SIRD-like epidemiological model capable of forecasting the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil. We model the current scenario of closed schools and universities, social distancing of individuals above sixty years old and voluntary home quarantine to show that it led to a considerable reduction in the number of infections as compared with a scenario without any control measures. Notwithstanding, our model predicts that the current measures are not enough to avoid overloading the health system, since the demand for intensive care units will soon surpass the number available. We also show that an urgent intense quarantine might be the only solution to avoid this scenario and, consequently, minimize the number of severe cases and deaths. On the other hand, we demonstrate that the early relaxation of the undergoing isolation measures would lead to an increase of millions of infections in a short period of time and the consecutive collapse of the health system.

 

Last Updated on Tuesday, 12 May 2020 02:20